Just over two weeks ago, Texas had every reason to believe a national championship was in reach. After all, the Longhorns were undefeated and had snatched the No. 1 ranking from Ohio State.
Offensive issues remained, yet few could have anticipated how costly they would become.
But in just two weeks, the Longhorns fell from No. 1 in the AP Poll to No. 19. They squandered back-to-back double-digit leads against unranked teams and now find themselves fighting to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
And the road doesn’t get any easier.
On Saturday, Texas will welcome No. 7 Ole Miss in a matchup that could end the Longhorns’ playoff aspirations.
A third consecutive loss would leave Texas at 4–3 overall and 1–3 in Southeastern Conference play. With losses to Florida and Oklahoma already on their resume, even impressive wins against Ohio State, Tennessee, and potentially other ranked opponents might not be enough to convince the selection committee to overlook a third defeat.
But the stakes go beyond Texas’ playoff possibilities.
Much of the criticism surrounding Texas’ past two weeks has centered on head coach Steve Sarkisian, particularly his responsibilities as the offensive playcaller.
Against a Florida team that allowed nearly 400 yards per game entering Saturday, Texas managed just 272 total yards and converted only 20% of its third-down attempts, despite Florida allowing opponents to convert on 46.7% of third-down attempts in the six games before.
“(I’m) very disappointed,” Sarkisian said after the loss to Florida. “We’ve got a better team than we are right now, and it’s my job to figure out how to get us to play closer to and, ultimately, to our potential.”
Given the resources Texas has invested in building a championship-caliber roster, another loss would fuel the debate over Sarkisian’s future with the program.
According to a September report from The Athletic, the Longhorns’ 2026 roster budget was estimated between $45 million and $55 million, the highest range in the SEC. Although Sarkisian disputed the accuracy of those figures, the estimate reflects expectations for the program, especially given the notable offensive additions. Yet six games into the season, the Longhorns have struggled to produce consistent offensive results.
Still, Saturday gives Sarkisian a chance to change the conversation.
Ole Miss enters Austin with a 5–1 record, fresh off a dominant 31-3 victory over then-No. 13 Missouri. As the highest-ranked opponent remaining on Texas’ schedule, the Rebels represent perhaps the Longhorns’ toughest remaining challenge.
A win over Ole Miss would undoubtedly restore some of the confidence in a team that seemed destined for a playoff berth just a few weeks ago.
For Sarkisian, it would demonstrate his ability to respond to adversity and potentially quiet the criticism that has followed him these past two weeks.
“It’s a heck of a challenge, but honestly, I wouldn’t want it any other way,” Sarkisian said on Monday. “I think we get an opportunity this week to show the true character of this team.”
Texas has an opportunity to show that early-season expectations weren’t entirely misplaced and, more importantly, steer the ship back in the right direction.
And with a virtually nonexistent margin of error for the Longhorns, Saturday could be a defining moment not only for Texas’ season, but also for Sarkisian’s future in Austin.
